After a successful Week 1, the Road to 272 Bets took a step back in Week 2, having a losing week of 6-10 (-2.91 units) which brings the season-long record to 15-16-1 (-0.76 units).
The show marches on. Not every week during the season is going to be a winning one. Now, we learn from our mistakes and look ahead to Week 3 as we do our best to get back to our winning ways.
I have my bets locked in for all 16 NFL Week 3 games, including the AFC East showdown on Thursday Night Football between the New England Patriots and New York Jets. If you want to listen to the audio version of this, you can find it wherever you get your podcasts. The video version is posted below.
As always, I'll follow the rules and guidelines that I laid out ahead of the opening week. It's time to dive into my best bet for every single Week 3 game.
NFL Week 3 Best Bets for Every GamePatriots vs. Jets Prediction
Heading into Week 3, the motto is the same as it was last week: "Don't overreact to early season results". It's much tougher to do that after Week 2 than it is after Week 1, but we need to remember a two-game sample size is still too small to take any significant stock in 2024 results in most cases.
That's why we shouldn't start to look at the Patriots as a competent team despite upsetting the Bengals in Week 1 and taking the Seahawks to overtime in Week 2. This is still with a roster with little-to-no offensive talent and a defense that while good, isn't as skilled as what the Jets have to offer on that side of the ball.
Aaron Rodgers and the New York offense are only going to get better as the season goes on. Now they get to play on their home field for the first time in 2024. I think they win and cover on Thursday Night Football.
Broncos vs. Buccaneers Prediction
The Buccaneers' 2-0 start to the season may be impressive, but they're just No. 17 in Net Yards per Play (+0.1) through those first two games which tells me they may not be performing as well as their record indicates. Their defense is 21st in opponent yards per play at 5.5 while the Broncos' defense comes in at 10th at 4.7.
The Broncos have been playing a style of football that will keep them in close games if they don't turn the ball over, unfortunately, an average turnover differential of -1.5 isn't going to get it done. With that being said, if they continue to play good defense but find a way to stop turning the ball over offensively, they can keep this game within a touchdown.
Texans vs. Vikings Prediction
To continue the theme of not overreacting to two-week results, the Vikings are an early candidate to be the most fraudulent team in the NFL so far this season. They beat up on a bad Giants team and had an impressive performance against the 49ers, but the win isn't enough to convince me they're a top-tier team in the NFC.
Two games of solid performance by Sam Darnold isn't enough to erase a career of subpar quarterback play, in my opinion.
Now, they take on a Texans team that does look like a legitimate contender, building off last year's success. I'm going to bank on this being a "back to reality" game for Minnesota, so I won't hesitate to bet on the Texans with the spread at less than a field goal.
Eagles vs. Saints prediction
I'm afraid the Saints may be a legitimately good football team this year. Klint Kubiak has completely changed this offense and it has been the best unit in the NFL through the first two weeks. While I don't think they can keep up the same pace of success, I do think they're going to be a playoff contender. They lead the NFL in Net Yards per Play (+2.4) through the first two weeks.
Meanwhile, the Eagles' offense is still a solid unit, but their defense has been abysmal the first two weeks. They allowed the Packers to average 7.1 yards per play against them in Week 1 and then allowed the Falcons to gain 6.6 yards per play against them in Week 2. They can't stop the pass and they can't stop the run. Having to face the high-flying Saints offense is a nightmare for the Eagles defense this week.
I think the Saints go marching on and improve to 3-0.
Chargers vs. Steelers prediction
The Chargers are coming in as my upset pick of the week. The Steelers continue to baffle me as year after year they win games they don't deserve to win. Despite being 2-0, the Steelers have a Net Yards per Play of -0.7, which ranks 24th in the NFL.
Good coaching and an average turnover margin per game of +2.5 has led them to their current record, but now they take on a team that has also been strongly coached through the first two weeks of the season in Los Angeles.
The Steelers simply can't continue to win games scoring just 15.5 points per game. Justin Herbert and company will be able to do enough to get the win in Pittsburgh on Sunday.
Packers vs. Titans Prediction
Before the season began, I felt the moves the Titans dead to beef up their defense were enough to make them an elite unit in 2024. Through the first two games, I've seen nothing to sway me away from that opinion. They lead the NFL in opponent yards per play at 3.8 and have been flying all around the field, most notably keeping teams to only 3.9 yards per pass attempt.
The Packers were able to get the win last week, but it was done almost solely on the ground, running the ball 53 times and only making Malik Willis throw the ball 14 times. While that type of a gameplan can steal a few wins, it's not a sustainable winning strategy. If Will Levis can keep his head on his shoulders, I have faith that the Tennessee offense can score enough points to allow the Titans' defense to lead them to victory.
Giants vs. Browns Prediction
Despite securing the 18-13 win against the Jaguars, last week, the Browns were outgained 5.9 yards per play to 4.6. I have next to no faith in this Browns' offense led by Deshaun Watson. They have averaged only 3.9 yards per play through the first two weeks, the third-fewest in the NFL. That's well below the Giants offense which has averaged 4.6.
Credit has to be given to the Giants last week for force-feeding the ball to Malik Nabers, which proved to largely be a successful strategy. If they continue to do that, they'll end up winning a few more games than people expect.
The Browns' defense is good enough to be rightfully favored in this game, but a 6.5-point spread is too aggressive. I'll plug my nose and take the points with the Giants.
Bears vs. Colts Prediction
I correctly predicted the Bears' offense to stumble out of the gates this season. It's too much to ask for their offense to be rolling on all cylinders considering how many new faces, including rookies, are playing in a new scheme with new teammates. Through the first two games, they have averaged only 3.0 yards per play, last in the NFL by half a yard.
With that being said, the Colts' offense hasn't been good enough for me to trust either. Anthony Richardson has completed just 49.1% of his passes and he has already thrown four interceptions. if you take out his deep shots in Week 1 against the Texans, he's been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL to start the season.
Instead of trusting either team to score many points, I'm going to sit back and bet in the UNDER in what I expect to be a low-scoring affair.
Dolphins vs. Seahawks Prediction
Skylar Thompson will start for the concussed Tua Tagovailoa, which is the reason the line is set at Miami +6.5, but I think the current line is an overreaction to the injury news. The Dolphins still have the offensive weapons to compete with Seattle, even if Thompson is the one getting them the ball.
I'm not yet sold on how good the Seahawks are this season with wins against the Broncos and Patriots through the first two weeks, the latter victory coming in overtime. They have yet to face a team with the offensive talent of Miami which makes me hesitate to lay almost 6.5 points on them.
I'll take a risk with the Dolphins backup to keep this game relatively close.
Panthers vs. Raiders Prediction
The Raiders were set as 7-point favorites in this game but when it was announced that former No. 1 overall pick, Bryce Young, would be benched in favor of Andy Dalton, the line dropped two points to Raiders -5. Is Young that bad of a quarterback that Dalton starting is worth two points? I don't think so.
Young didn't do himself any favors, but the Panthers' roster leaves a lot to be desired and their defense ranks 25th in the NFL in opponent yards per play at 5.7. I'm not sure Andy Dalton, who has gone 6-9 in his last 15 starts while playing for much better teams, is the answer.
I'll lay the points with the Raiders, who will be playing at home for the first time this season.
Ravens vs. Cowboys Prediction
The Ravens have some questions in their secondary, but I'm not ready to push the panic button for Baltimore quite yet. They're 11th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +0.5, well above the Cowboys who are -0.4 despite having a win on their record.
The Cowboys have had issues stopping the run the past number of seasons and it seems to be a cause for concern for them again in 2024. Through the first two weeks, they're 23rd in opponent yards per carry, giving up 4.9 yards per rush. A game against the high-powered rushing offense of the Ravens is bad news for the Dallas defense.
I'll take Baltimore to get in the win and cover on Sunday.
49ers vs. Rams Prediction
It's time to sell all your stock in the Rams. This has been a disastrous start to the season. Not only are they 0-2, but they're the most injured team in the NFL. Darious Williams, Joe Noteboom, Steve Avila, and Puka Nacua are all on injured reserve. Cooper Kupp, John Johnson, and Jonah Jackson are doubtful for this game and both may land on injured reserve too.
On top of all that they're 31st in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at -1.9 and are giving up a disgusting 9.3 yards per pass attempt, the most in the NFL by an entire yard. I see no reason to justify a bet on Los Angeles at this point in the season, especially against the 49ers.
I'll lay the points with San Fran.
Lions vs. Cardinals Prediction
The Cardinals aren't a perfect team. They have some significant issues in the secondary, but so do the Lions. My issue in this game is with the Detroit offense. They seem to not have the same flow they had last season and are getting too cute at times. Jared Goff may also be turning into a pumpkin. He has a QBR of just 37.1 this season while throwing three interceptions to only one touchdown and averaging 6.3 yards per throw, 1.3 fewer yards per throw than last season.
I'm not ready to bet against the Lions on the moneyline, but I'll take the three points with a Cardinals team that looks to have something going, at least on the offensive side of the football. They're fifth in the NFL in yards per play at 6.2.
Chiefs vs. Falcons Prediction
The Falcons pulled off the improbable win on Monday night, but now they have to face Patrick Mahomes on Sunday Night Football off a short week in what will be a nightmare matchup for Atlanta.
The Falcons' biggest weakness on defense is their lack of depth in the secondary and if anyone can take advantage of that, it's Mahomes and his plethora of weapons. Atlanta's lack of pass rush is also going to allow the three-time Super Bowl winner to sit back in the pocket and pick the Falcons apart.
The Falcons' path to victory is running the ball early and often and keeping Mahomes off the field, but Kansas City is still the right side in this one at -4.5.
Jaguars vs. Bills Prediction
Jacksonville's offense hasn't been as bad as the final box scores indicate. The Jaguars have plenty of issues on third down, ranking converting just 26.32% of third downs, and also converting red zone trips to touchdowns, but as a whole, they still rank 16th in Net Yards per Play at +0.2.
This could also be a bit of a sell high spot on the Bills who have convinced everyone they're the No. 2 or No. 3 team in the AFC after the first two weeks. I still have concerns about their roster, especially on defense, so I'm not ready to lay 5.5 points on them against a tough Jacksonville team quite yet.
Commanders vs. Bengals Prediction
The Bengals' offense and Joe Burrow looked back to being the unit people expected them to be in Week 2 against the Chiefs, but I'm still not sold on this team as a whole. A close game against the Chiefs isn't enough to let me forget about their Week 1 game against the Patriots.
Meanwhile, the Commanders have played better than people think. They haven't been good in the red zone, but they're 10th in the league in yards per play at 5.8 and their defense has been solid enough to keep them in games.
The Bengals should win this game, but I think a point spread of 8.5 is too rich for my blood. I'm still going to be cautious with Cincinnati. The Commanders have run the ball successfully through the first two weeks and if they do that again against the Bengals, they can keep this game close.
