The first month of the college basketball season is officially in the rearview mirror, and it’s safe to say we learned a lot. With more high-profile early season matchups than any season in recent memory, we have plenty of compelling early data points to point us toward the best of the best in the sport. And while opinions of who the biggest threats are to cut down the nets in Indianapolis will change throughout the season, history suggests those that start hot tend to shine in March. Every national champion since 2004 has been in the top 12 of the AP poll in the sixth week of the season, and only two champions since ’09 have lost a game during their early season tournament.
Here’s a look at KenPom’s top 10 right now and who’s a serious contender from that group, plus more high-profile teams to buy or sell as December hoops get underway.
1. Michigan
The Pitch: Look no further than its dominant Players Era run to see what the best version of Michigan looks like. When everything’s clicking, the Wolverines can overwhelm even elite opponents with their size, physicality and length around the rim. Being elite at protecting the paint has been a key piece of the formula for Florida and the last two UConn championship teams, and Michigan so far is pacing to be even better than those two as two-point defenses.
The Flaws: Point guard play. The Wolverines dialed back Elliot Cadeau’s minutes in Las Vegas and played more through Yaxel Lendeborg, but long-term being able to turn to its only true ballhandler in key moments will be essential. When Cadeau’s good (13 assists vs. Gonzaga), he’s really good; but when he’s turning it over, Michigan becomes a lot more beatable.
The Verdict: Contender 2. Purdue
The Pitch: The Boilermakers are, unsurprisingly, the most efficient offense in the country through the season’s first month. And that’s with Braden Smith, the nation’s best point guard, off to a slow start offensively. Purdue shoots the cover off the ball, has two effective low-post threats in Trey Kaufman-Renn and Oscar Cluff, and more depth to keep cycling through bodies in the backcourt. Its 30-point win over Texas Tech and road win at Alabama early have been compelling.
The Flaws: Purdue’s defense is clearly improved from a year ago, but it’s still not quite what you’d like to see from a title contender. Cluff and Daniel Jacobsen have given the Boilers more teeth at the rim, but Purdue is still a conservative defensive outfit that needs to let teams fire away from deep. They’ve also struggled early with hyper-athletic teams, with the film from their bumpy showing vs. Memphis an early yellow flag.
The Verdict: Contender3. Duke
The Pitch: Cameron Boozer looks like the best player in college basketball early on, capping a dominant first month with a 35-point master class in a win over Arkansas. He’s elite in virtually every statistical category, making a bigger impact than expected as a floor-spacer, passer and defender in addition to his ability to overpower foes at the rim. Pair him with a number of future first-rounders, and there’s a lot to like here.
The Flaws: Duke is very much still finding its hierarchy offensively beyond Boozer. Isaiah Evans is the most consistent second scorer, but his buckets usually come in spurts. Point guard Caleb Foster has had an uneven start to the season, though perhaps a strong second half vs. Arkansas can propel him forward.
The Verdict: Contender 4. Iowa State
The Pitch: Iowa State is doing Iowa State things, turning teams over at an elite clip and relying on its continuity to stack early wins. Joshua Jefferson is one of the nation’s most underrated players, and Milan Momcilovic has made the big step Iowa State’s staff was betting on him making. Plus, freshman Killyan Toure has been a revelation, especially with PG Tamin Lipsey battling injuries.
The Flaws: Iowa State is running hot offensively early on, but some of that can be attributed to its opponents’ poor defense, with Mississippi State, St. John’s, Creighton and Syracuse all struggling on that end. And for as hot as Momcilovic has been, the Cyclones’ shooting outside of him is still a question mark. We’ll learn more about this group Saturday at Purdue.
The Verdict: Pretender5. Gonzaga
The Pitch: The Bulldogs had a case for No. 1 before its 40-point drubbing by Michigan. Athletic wings Tyon Grant-Foster and Jalen Warley have transformed the Zags on the defensive end, and Spanish point guard Mario Saint-Supery should continue to improve. Plus, the Bulldogs have a pair of bigs in Graham Ike and Braden Huff that are a load to handle on the block.
The Flaws: The Michigan showing was largely a burn-the-tape game for Gonzaga, but it was instructive to see how much more difficult life will be for them against teams that can play Huff and Ike one-on-one down low. That won’t happen often, but those that can will have success against the Bulldogs.
The Verdict: Contender6. Houston
The Pitch: While it hasn’t been the sharpest first month for Houston, freshman Kingston Flemings emerging as a star melts away a lot of the preseason concerns about shot creation. Kelvin Sampson’s teams always improve throughout a season, and that should be magnified this year with four freshmen in the regular rotation still very much getting up to speed.
The Flaws: Houston doesn’t have the low-post scoring threat it has typically been able to count on for ugly late-clock buckets under Sampson. Combine that with its youth (particularly in a rather complicated system) and it’s fair to wonder if this team can reach the heights of some of Sampson’s best with the Cougars.
The Verdict: Pretender7. UConn
The Pitch: The Huskies have one of the most potent rotations in the country now that Braylon Mullins and Tarris Reed Jr. are back from early season injuries. With Solo Ball, Alex Karaban and Mullins on the wings, UConn could emerge as one of the best shooting teams in the country, while Reed gives them a dominant two-way rim presence. The fact that UConn has wins over BYU and Illinois and hung neck-and-neck with Arizona without its team at full strength says a lot about its ceiling once everyone is playing their best.
The Flaws: UConn’s defensive style still means it fouls a ton, and isn’t quite as elite at protecting the rim as it was in the Donovan Clingan years to make up for that. That said, it has done a much better job defending the three than it did a year ago, a key part of its defensive collapse in 2024–25.
The Verdict: Contender8. Arizona
The Pitch: Arizona has college basketball’s best résumé thus far, with wins against Florida, UCLA and UConn all away from home. You can poke holes in each of those three results (UConn was shorthanded, Florida and UCLA have underachieved), but taken together they paint a compelling case for Arizona as a top-three team. Jaden Bradley has emerged as an elite point guard, Koa Peat is as good a freshman as you’ll find and the Wildcats bludgeon opponents on the glass.
The Flaws: Is it possible in 2025–26 to win a championship while almost entirely ignoring the three-point shot? Arizona, which gets just 20.6% of its points from three, is testing that theory.
The Verdict: Pretender9. Louisville
The Pitch: The Cardinals are fun to watch offensively with freshman Mikel Brown Jr. at the controls and tons of three-point shooting around him. And while Louisville’s defensive numbers early on are inflated by dismantling some overmatched low-major foes, it has looked sharper on that end than expected thanks to a new-look frontcourt.
The Flaws: In an era in which playing big is back en vogue, Louisville is going small with three- and four-guard lineups and a lack of an imposing force at the rim. Will that bite the Cardinals against bigger, more physical teams in March?
The Verdict: Contender10. Vanderbilt
The Pitch: The Commodores are the biggest surprise on this list, climbing into the top 10 of KenPom after blowing out Saint Mary’s by 25 to win Battle 4 Atlantis. Vanderbilt is scoring points in bunches, doing it efficiently with eight different players averaging at least 8.5 points per game. Particularly with the rest of the SEC’s slow start, it doesn’t feel like a stretch to say the Commodores could seriously compete to win the league.
The Flaws: Building title contenders usually requires NBA-caliber talent, and it’s hard to see the surefire pro on this squad. Maybe undersized PG Tyler Tanner finds a way or sharpshooter Tyler Nickel carves out a role, but this group’s strength is more its depth than top-end talent.
The Verdict: PretenderFive More I’m Buying Michigan State
The Spartans have been awesome in their three high-major wins this season. Point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. has made huge steps forward offensively and seems well on his way to being one of the best floor generals in the country. Michigan State’s size and athleticism around him helps it dominate the glass and play stout defense. Saturday’s showdown with Duke in East Lansing, Mich., should be awesome.
Illinois
The Illini aren’t yet a finished product, but few can match their combination of size and skill level across the board. Kylan Boswell has played like an All-American early in his senior season, and Tomislav Ivišić is looking more like himself after missing time with a knee injury and tonsillitis.
Alabama
The Tide weathered an impossible November schedule and came out of it with wins over St. John’s and Illinois. Labaron Philon is the perfect engine for Nate Oats’s offensive system, and the Tide have looked great whenever they’ve at least hung in with their opponents on the glass.
Kansas
We still have so much to learn about this Kansas team given Darryn Peterson’s absence for much of November, but going 3–0 at Players Era (including a win over Tennessee) without him was a positive sign. Peterson should make scoring a lot easier for this Jayhawks team, and they’ve shown surprising teeth on the defensive end of late.
North Carolina
It’s hard to shake that second half against Kansas from my mind, even if we haven’t seen the same Heels since with Seth Trimble sidelined with an arm injury. Once Trimble returns, North Carolina has a pretty intriguing recipe with star freshman Caleb Wilson, highly skilled five-man Henri Veesaar and plenty of shooting around them.
Five I’m Selling Florida
I considered a buy low on the Gators for no other reason than it seems impossible that Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee continue to shoot this poorly from deep, but the Gators’ lack of depth and relative struggles against physicality have me concerned. Beat one (or both) of Duke and UConn and the narrative could flip quickly though.
Kentucky
Kentucky remains strong in the metrics thanks to beating Tennessee Tech by 50 and Valparaiso by 48, but its showings against top competition have been seriously lackluster. If you could promise the Wildcats would have a healthy Jayden Quaintance and Jaland Lowe by February, I’d feel better, but that lack of long-term clarity with those two huge pieces is concerning.
Tennessee
The Vols showed their promise and their flaws last week in Las Vegas. The rally past Houston and how good Ja’Kobi Gillespie was at times were very positive signs, but the second half against Kansas was poor and the offense still can get bogged down at times. In the end, it just doesn’t feel like the Vols have quite enough options offensively outside of Gillespie and Nate Ament.
BYU
The Cougars’ 28-point win over Wisconsin looks slightly less appealing after the Badgers got handled by TCU last week, and BYU has otherwise left something to be desired in its five high-major games. BYU’s three stars (AJ Dybantsa, Richie Saunders, Robert Wright III) have shined, but the depth hasn’t come together yet.
St. John’s
It’d be foolish to write off a Rick Pitino team because of a bad November, but St. John’s has a long way to go to reach the championship-level aspirations of the preseason. Its guard play has simply not been good enough on either end of the floor, with key portal pickups Ian Jackson and Joson Sanon in particular really struggling.
