The Road to 272 Bets is in the books, but that doesn't mean we're going to stop betting on every game.
The NFL Playoffs are set to begin and so is the Road to Super Bowl 59. Throughout the playoffs, instead of just betting the side or total on every single game, I'm going to throw in a player prop as well. That means we have 12 picks to get through for Wild-Card Weekend.
My picks are locked in, so let's dive into them.
NFL Wild-Card Round Best Bets for Every GameChargers vs. Texans Prediction
It's best to not overthink this play. The Texans have struggled in the second half of the season and there's no sign of things getting better. Their offense is 25th in the NFL in EPA per play and 31st in success rate since Week 10 and things won't get easier against a team as well-coached as the Chargers.
The Chargers should have no issue playing on the road. in fact, by some metrics, they've been better on the road than at home this season. For example, they have a Net Yards per Play of +0.5 on the road compared to -0.4 at home.
Unless the Texans offense wakes up, which I don't expect to happen, I'll take Los Angeles to win and cover.
Chargers vs. Texans Player Prop
One of the biggest things we should pay attention to in this game, which helps both my Chargers -3 bet and my player prop, is the battle between the Texans' red zone offense and the Chargers' red zone defense.
The Texans are 26th in red zone offense, scoring a touchdown on just 49.12% of their red zone trips. Now, they take on the No. 1 red zone defense. The Chargers allow a touchdown on only 45% of their opponents' trips to their red zone.
With that in mind, I expect plenty of Texans drives to stall, leading to them leaning on their kicker, Ka'imi Fairbairn.
Steelers vs. Ravens Prediction
This is shaping up to be the most lopsided game of the playoffs. The Steelers continue their seemingly yearly tradition of stumbling into the playoffs and then getting blown out in the first round. Pittsburgh finished the regular season ranking 23rd in Net Yards per Play (-0.4), the worst mark amongst all postseason teams.
Their offense has had no life of late and now they take on the team that I think is playing the best football in the league. Since Week 10, the Ravens have ranked second in both EPA per play and opponent EPA per play. Their early-season troubles on defense have been fixed and now they're back to playing at the elite level they did in 2023.
In my opinion, the Ravens are the best team the AFC has to offer and they'll prove that on Saturday night.
Steelers vs. Ravens Player Prop
Despite backing the Ravens to win and cover, I'm going to take a Steelers player prop. George Pickens posted a goose egg in Week 18 but I can't look past his longest receptions prop. In his 14 games this season, he has hauled in a reception of 27+ yards in 11 of them, including a 37-yard catch in his only start against the Ravens.
The Ravens' defense, while improved, has still given up 58 passing plays of 20+ yards this season, the third most in the NFL. At some point this game, Pickens is going to haul in a deep ball.
Broncos vs. Bills Prediction
There's no denying the Broncos have the better defense in this game, which could make this projected lopsided fair an interesting duel.
The Broncos rank second in opponent yards per play (4.9), first in opponent EPA per play, second in opponent success rate, and third in opponent points per game (18.3). Meanwhile, the Bills rank 21st (5.5), 16th, 20th, and 11th (21.6) in those four respective stats.
Yes, the Bills offense is significantly better and could find ways to score at will, but I'm not ready to lay this many points on a team that is clearly inferior on one side of the football. I'll take the points with the Broncos and see if they can challenge the heavily favored Bills.
Broncos vs. Bills Player Prop
It may be blasphemy to fade the projected NFL MVP, but he has a tough matchup in front of him. The Broncos secondary has been the best in the NFL this season. They allow the third fewest yards per pass attempt (6.2), rank first in opponent dropback EPA, and third in opponent dropback success rate.
You may also be surprised to find out that Allen has averaged just 219.5 passing yards per game this season.
Not only that, but the Bills have made smart game plans in the past and if they do that again, they may keep the ball on the ground as much as possible, especially if they take an early lead.
Packers vs. Eagles Prediction
I'm going to buy low on the Green Bay Packers, who haven't impressed in two straight weeks. With that in mind, they still rank third in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +0.9, sporting the same mark while playing on the road this season.
If any team wants to beat the Eagles, the key is stopping the run. 48.83% of their offensive yards gained this season have been on the ground, which is over 4% more than the next closest team. If anyone can slow that rush attack down, it's the Packers. They allow the third-fewest yards per carry at 4.0. They're also seventh in opponent rush EPA and fifth in opponent rush success rate since Week 10.
Finally, Jalen Hurts is still in concussion protocol as of Monday afternoon. He may not be ready to suit up by the time this game kicks off on Sunday.
Packers vs. Eagles Player Prop
Jayden Reed has arguably been the Packers' top receiver this season, but he hasn't been a deep target for them. In fact, he has the fewest air yards per reception amongst all Packers receivers at 12.4. He has also only recorded a reception of 21 yards or longer in eight of the Packers' 17 games this season.
Now, he has to face an Eagles secondary that has allowed only 35 receptions of 20+ yards this season, the fewest in the league.
Commanders vs. Buccaneers Prediction
Despite delivering some electric moments this NFL season, the underlying numbers on the Commanders don't look promising. They enter the playoffs ranking 13th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +0.3, while ranking just 15th in EPA per play and 19th opponent EPA per play since Week 10.
Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have quietly become one of the elite teams in the league. They're now fifth in Net Yards per Play (+0.7), along with fourth in EPA per play and seventh in opponent EPA per play since Week 10.
Most importantly, the Buccaneers should find plenty of success running the football. Since committing to Bucky Irving as their main rusher, their running game has thrived. Now they get to face a Commanders defense that allows 4.8 yards per carry, the fifth most in the NFL.
Finally, the Commanders have struggled on the road this season, ranking 27th in road Net Yards per Play at -0.6. A lot of things are pointing in the Bucs' favor on Sunday night.
Commanders vs. Buccaneers Player Prop
As I wrote above, the Commanders have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL which should lead to Bucky Irving having a big game. He has reached 88+ yards on the ground in five of his last seven starts and is now averaging a blistering 5.4 yards per carry.
I think he can soar past this total on Sunday night.
Vikings vs. Rams Prediction
Sam Darnold's Week 18 performance through me for a loop, so instead of backing either team I'm going to take the UNDER instead, the same bet I made in their regular season matchup when it lost on a last-minute safety.
Despite making the playoffs, offenses have been underwhelming this season. The Vikings and Rams rank 12th and 16th in yards per play as well as 13th and 14th in EPA per play. Another issue they've shared is punching the ball in for a touchdown when they get to the red zone. The Vikings are 19th and the Rams are 25th in red zone offense. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles defense ranks fifth in the red zone, allowing teams to score a touchdown on just 50% of red zone trips.
All of those factors, paired with my lack of faith in Sam Darnold in a big game, led me to bet the UNDER.
Vikings vs. Rams Player Prop
I realize an anytime touchdown bet is contrary to my UNDER bet, but I think this is a great spot for T.J. Hockenson to find the end zone. The Rams have struggled to defend tight ends this season, allowing the second-most receptions (106) and the fourth-most yards (1,101) to the position.
Hockenson missed the earlier game between these two teams, but backup tight end, Josh Oliver, scored one of the Vikings' two touchdowns. Hockenson presents from solid value at +215 odds to score a touchdown.
